Today · July 11, 2026
Lead story
🇺🇸 Mortgage rates
Mortgage rates hit 6.72% as Iran ceasefire collapses — and the June inflation report next week could push them higher
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.716% this week after U.S.–Iran ceasefire negotiations collapsed and both sides resumed military strikes. Oil prices surged, bond yields followed, and mortgage rates — which track the 10-year Treasury — moved up in lockstep. The average rate is now up from its 2026 low of 6.09% set earlier in the year.
"Until a more permanent resolution is reached between the U.S. and Iran, mortgage rates are likely to stay higher for longer." — Erika Giovanetti, U.S. News Consumer Lending Analyst
The next major catalyst: the June CPI inflation report releases on July 14. May's reading came in at 4.2% — well above the Fed's 2% target and the highest since April 2023. If June shows another increase, markets may price in a rate hike at the Fed's July 29–30 meeting, which would send mortgage rates even higher. A surprise decline in inflation could provide some relief. Either way, most experts now expect rates to stay between 6% and 7% through the rest of 2026.
This week
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Federal Reserve
Jul 9, 2026
Fed Chair Warsh says inflation is "too high" — declines to hint at July rate decision
Speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated inflation remains too elevated and is the Fed's primary objective. He declined to speculate on the July 29–30 meeting outcome. Key signal: most policymakers now expect a rate hike may be necessary later in 2026, not a cut — a major shift from earlier in the year.
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Housing market
Jul 8, 2026
Median home price hits all-time high for May at $429,300 — even as sales slow
The National Association of Realtors reports the median existing home price rose 1.3% year-over-year to $429,300 in May 2026 — an all-time high for the month. Yet sales are slowing as buyers resist current price tags while sellers refuse to discount. The result, per Cotality's chief economist: "a standoff." Half of the 50 largest metro areas saw price declines over the past year.
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ECB
Jul 7, 2026
ECB upgrades economic models to handle "growing uncertainty in a time of war and energy shocks"
The European Central Bank published a blog post announcing an overhaul of its economic modelling tools, citing limitations revealed by the Iran conflict and energy price spikes. For variable-rate mortgage holders in Spain, Portugal, Italy and France: the ECB's next rate decision is July 24. Euribor 12M remains at 2.42%, still elevated after the June 5 rate hike to 2.25%.
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Mortgage rates
Jul 7, 2026
LendingTree: Refinance now if your rate is above 6.99% — hold if it's below 6.49%
LendingTree's July 2026 forecast puts refinance guidance into two clear buckets. With the 30-year refinance rate at 6.76%, the math now works for borrowers above 7%. On a $400,000 loan, refinancing from 7.25% to 6.76% saves roughly $116/month — breaking even in about 26 months with typical closing costs of ~$3,000.
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Banxico
Jun 25, 2026
Banxico holds rate at 6.50% in June — signals this may be the floor for now
Banco de México held its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.50% in June, after cutting 25bp to that level in May. The board signaled the current level is likely appropriate going forward, given geopolitical risks and persistent core inflation at 4.12%. Headline inflation has eased to 3.55%, closer to the 3% target. The next Banxico meeting is August 6 — a cut is possible but not certain.
Earlier this month
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Mortgage rates
Jul 4, 2026
Rates jumped after U.S.–Iran ceasefire collapsed over July 4 weekend — oil hit $75/barrel
U.S. and Iran traded strikes over the July 4 holiday after Iran fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil surged to $75/barrel, sending Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher. The 30-year rate climbed from 6.57% to 6.72% in three days. This is the same pattern seen throughout 2026: geopolitical flare-ups > oil spike > inflation fears > higher bond yields > higher mortgage rates.
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ECB
Jul 1, 2026
ECB's Lagarde at Sintra Forum: Europe and the U.S. are "hostage to each other" on AI
ECB President Christine Lagarde at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra acknowledged Europe's lag in AI investment but argued both regions are interdependent. She also noted the ECB is factoring in AI's potential deflationary impact on its models. For borrowers: Lagarde gave no signals of rate changes at the July 24 meeting. The ECB's primary concern remains the Iran conflict's impact on energy prices and inflation.
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Federal Reserve
Jun 17, 2026
Fed holds at 3.625% — but June meeting minutes reveal rate hike is back on the table
The FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in June, as widely expected. But the minutes, released this week, revealed a hawkish shift: multiple policymakers now see a hike as possible later in 2026 if inflation doesn't cool. May CPI came in at 4.2% — the highest since April 2023. The Fed's next meeting is July 29–30. Markets currently price an 18% chance of a hike, up from near zero in May.
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ECB · España
Jun 5, 2026
ECB raises rates to 2.25% — Euribor jumps immediately, hitting variable mortgage holders in Spain, Portugal and Italy
The ECB raised all three key rates by 25 basis points on June 5, pushing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Euribor 12M responded immediately, rising to 2.42%. For Spanish borrowers with a variable mortgage: a €200,000 loan at Euribor + 1% spread now costs roughly €55/month more than before June. Fixed-rate mortgages now look significantly more attractive.
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Banxico
May 7, 2026
Banxico cuts to 6.50% — lowest since April 2022, but signals easing cycle may be ending
Banco de México cut its benchmark rate by 25bp to 6.50% in a split 3–2 vote, citing Q1 economic contraction and easing inflation. The cut was characterized as the likely end of the easing cycle that began in March 2024. The TIIE 28-day rate — which most variable loan products in Mexico are indexed to — now stands at 9.18%. Mortgage rates remain elevated at 12–13%.
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Bank of England
Jul 1, 2026
BoE Governor Bailey warns of "tail risk" from rising leverage in equity and bond markets
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey flagged concerns at the ECB Sintra Forum about increasing leverage in core government bond markets and hedge fund equity positions. He called these potential sources of financial instability. For UK mortgage holders: the BoE held at 3.75% in May. Next decision is July 30 — most analysts expect a hold, with UK CPI at 3.4%, still above the 2% target.
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Brasil · BCB
May 7, 2026
BCB cuts Selic to 14.25% — but Brazilian inflation at 4.8% keeps borrowing costs extremely high
The Brazilian central bank (Copom) cut the Selic rate to 14.25% at its May meeting, continuing the gradual easing cycle. Despite cuts, Brazil maintains one of the highest benchmark rates in the world. Real estate financing rates remain around 11–12% annually, plus the TR (Taxa Referencial) adjustment. Next Copom meeting: July 29. A 25bp cut to 14.00% is possible.
What to watch next week
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June CPI ReportJul 14, 2026
June inflation report — the single most important number for mortgage rates this month
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June CPI on July 14. May's reading was 4.2% — the highest since April 2023. If June shows another increase: expect mortgage rates to jump, Fed hike probability to rise, and bond yields to spike. If June shows a surprise decline: some relief possible before the July 29–30 Fed meeting. This report is the key catalyst to watch.
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ECB MeetingJul 24, 2026
ECB rate decision — will Euribor go higher? What variable-rate mortgage holders need to know
The ECB's next meeting is July 24. After the June hike to 2.25%, the question is whether they pause or hike again. Key input: Eurozone inflation varies significantly — Italy at 1.9% (below target), Germany at 2.3%, France at 2.1%. Southern Europe is actually below the ECB's 2% target, which argues for a pause. If the ECB holds on July 24, Euribor should stabilize — good news for variable mortgage holders.